THE
Office of Public Relations
StocktonZogby Statewide Poll Finds Corzine Up by 7% With a Week Left Before Election; Leads Forrester on Issues
For Immediate Release
Contact: Tim Kelly
(609) 652-4950
The poll
finds Corzine maintaining a seven-point edge over Forrester. The Forrester camp
has been rocked in the final weeks of the campaign by allegations of campaign
finance violations by Forresters Washington, D.C.-based insurance company,
Heartland Fidelity Insurance. Thats the same margin Corzine led by ten
days earlier, when a Stockton College-Zogby poll found him up 45% to 38%.
The statewide
survey of 403 likely voters was conducted October 26 and 27, 2005. It has
a margin of error of +/-5.0 percentage points.
While
Corzine currently polls below 50%, the poll does come with some positive news
for his campaign: 91% of Corzines supporters consider themselves
strongly committed to the candidate, while that figure is 87% among Forrester
backers. Corzine also has a better image among voters, with 55% of
respondents saying they view the Democrat favorably versus 49% for the Republican.
A key
stumbling block for Forrester may come from voters belief that Corzine is the
best candidate on a range of issues. Corzine is twice as likely to be
seen as the best candidate for education (54% versus 27%) while even on the
critical issue of corruption in government, he holds a one-point lead, 34% to
33%. Republicans had counted on corruption being a key issue following
the resignation of former Governor James McGreevey and Forrester had made it a
centerpiece of his campaign. The numbers suggest the issue has not gained
traction with voters in the
|
Which candidate is better able to handle issue? |
Corzine |
Forrester |
|
Education |
54 |
27 |
|
Environment |
47 |
28 |
|
Jobs and the economy |
44 |
41 |
|
Taxes |
42 |
34 |
|
Safety and security |
38 |
34 |
|
Corruption in government |
34 |
33 |
Despite
trailing in the poll and failing to make up ground since the previous survey,
there is good news for Republican candidate Forrester in the poll. He is performing
better among Republicans than Corzine is among Democratswhile Forrester has
the allegiance of 78% of Republicans in the survey, Corzine is taking 72% of
Democratswhile Forrester is siphoning off 18% of Democrats. However,
Corzine holds a commanding lead among independents, who support him by a 52% to
29% margin.
New
Whichever
candidate takes the reins of state government from Acting Governor Richard
Codey will have one immediate problem to deal with: voters are disaffected with
the states direction. By a wide 57% to 32% margin, likely voters in the
survey said the state is heading in the wrong direction. This view is
particularly strong in the South and Central regions of the state, while those living
in Northern New Jersey are more likely to view the states direction in
favorable terms. Corzine, whose Democratic Party currently holds the
governors mansion, polls particularly well with those who feel the state is on
the right track, taking three-in-four voters with this outlook (76%) versus
fewer than one-in-five for Forrester (18%). Forrester, however, has failed to
capitalize with the large number of disaffected New Jerseyans; among those who
say the state is heading in the wrong direction, he leads Corzine 52% to 29%.
The
Stockton College-Zogby Poll is a joint venture between The Richard Stockton College of New
Jersey, and polling firm Zogby International. The polling partnership
includes the previous
Zogby International conducted interviews of 403 likely voters chosen at random statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 26 to 27. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.